Sweetnorthernsaint, a gelding son of Florida stallion Sweetsouthernsaint, has become a wild card of sorts in the Derby mix. It appears the further the distance Sweetnorthernsaint runs, the better, and this should give anyone handicapping the Derby something to think about. His jockey, Kent Desormeaux, has practically declared the mile and a half Belmont Stakes his to lose. Considering the fact that the Belmont Stakes is more a jockey’s race than a stamina test, he’d better be prepared to back up his bold words. Sweetsouthernsaint, with two crops to race, was a precocious two year old runner in Florida who never quite got on the Derby trail due to injuries. But, as a son of the prolific late Saint Ballado, the sire of reigning Horse of the Year, Saint Liam, as well as champion distaffer, Ashado, both of whom were grade 1 winners at a mile and quarter, and sporting a classic staying low dosage index of 1.22 himself, Sweetsouthernsaint’s offspring seem capable of getting the distance. Sweetnorthernsaint’s dosage of 1.33 suggests the fruit does not fall far from the tree, and, if the Michael Trombetta trained gelding gets a clean trip, the pickings might be good.

Point Given, Broken Vow, Aptitude, Strategic Mission, and King Cugat are all stallions represented in the Kentucky Derby by members of their first crop, which undoubtedly pleases their breeding farms, but also adds an element of the unknown to the handicapping calculus. Point Determined is a Maryland bred son of Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Point Given, and is owned by The Bob and Beverly Lewis Trust, which has won the Kentucky Derby twice before, with Silver Charm and Charismatic. Point Determined has knocked heads with the likes of Brother Derek, A.P. Warrior, and Bob and John all winter in California, and enters the Derby without a stakes win to his credit. However, his driving second place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, a series of bullet works since then, and with Rafael Bejarano in the irons, he is a dangerous horse. Point Given entered the Kentucky Derby as the prohibitive favorite, and had he not been subjected to the torrid pace of that race, the subsequent Horse of the Year would have been a Triple Crown winner, a racing superstar, and worth considerably more than his $50,000 stud fee. Bob Baffert, who trained Point Given, as well as Point Determined, may be a bit more subdued these days, but, with three live shots in this year’s Derby, along with Sinister Minister and Bob and John, he is in Louisville loaded for bear. A Point Determined win would also be a poignant and fitting epitaph for the late Bob Lewis, one of racing’s true gentlemen, who passed away this February.

Broken Vow, the sire of the Steven Asmussen trained Private Vow, is a son of the memorable 1990 Derby winner Unbridled, who also sired Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone, Preakness winner Red Bullet, and Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker. Although Private Vow has run only twice this year, beaten by Lawyer Ron both times at Oaklawn Park, he remains a seasoned horse with a graded stakes win on the Churchill Downs strip and a recent bullet work there, to boot. Broken Vow was a late developing graded stakes winner with an impressive female family. His dam and grand dam, sired by Nijinsky II and Blushing Groom, respectively, were both stakes producers. When you add Private Vow’s dam sire, leading broodmare sire, Deputy Minister, you have a horse that, on paper, has a classic winning pedigree.